The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an ... (ISBN 0385267320)

Too outdated.:
This book, written by Peter Schwartz, probes readers to take the time to map out their future, whether personal or business, by way of "scenario building." Too many of us go on expecting (or hoping) for things to just fall in to place- optimists! Schwartz, who worked for Shell during the energy crisis in the 70s, uses his experiences of using scenario building to teach the reader how to plan major decisions in their organizational and/or personal future. This craft isn't about predicting the future, but rather a way to formulate the probability of events and construct plausible futures that allow people to consider different futures so the can be prepared. One thing that I did like was his idea of "reperceive." People are reluctant to see how the world really is and concoct this fantasy of how the world works, and in most cases it is just that, a fantasy-world. Before individuals plan for the future, they have to first "reperceive" it or "question their assumptions about the way the world works, so that they can see the world more clearly." The negative points about this book had to do with how out of date it is. Written in the late 80s, I couldn't get past the many references to old technologies and political and economical events to be able to enjoy the book. In attempts to forecast the year 2005, scenarios are built on events and political situations of the 80s which makes for very boring reading because it entails a lot of detailed events that happened before I was born. While this future is not totally wrong, it is pretty generalized- anyone who is that vague about the future would be on point. In all, this book was okay. It didn't knock my socks off- but it did bring back fond memories of the Sony Walkman.

Want to change your thinking?:
This book is excellent!! This book makes understanding the future almost as easy as a carnival card reader. This book isn't a book of prophesy. It is a book that teaches you how to formulate your own prophesy for your unique situation. The author has a unique way to do this. He urges readers to seek keys. These keys are things in the environment which indicate other things will occur. The average reader after finishing the book will change their way of looking at the world. Through his explanation of how to make a scenario you learn how to gather information from unknown sources and focus on what is important. It is like an unveiling of magic keys to the world. These keys aren't of course magic but something new. The newness opens minds. The book is dry in places but I think everyone will enjoy this book.

The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World:
The book is insightful, perceptive, well-written and applicable for private and public entities. The author presents considered judgement as the norm to pursue. He demystifies "predictions" and presents accurate ones as logical conclusions to observation, analysis, and synthesis.

Good guide to scenario-building:
Heard THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW, written and read by Peter Schwartz. The book's subtitle caught my attention: PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE IN AN UNCERTTAIN WORLD . . . I thought to myself, "Wouldn't that be a great thing to do?" Schwartz, one of the nation's leading futurists, actually answers my question--showing how it can be done through the use of scenario-building . . . this enables managers to: * "invent and then consider, in depth, several stories of equally plausible futures" so that they can make "strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures." I liked the examples that were given, including many from his work at Royal Dutch/Shell . . . the one describing the thought behind a new natural gas field offshore from Norway helped make the whole scenario concept much clearer to me . . those involved at the time had to consider whether the U.S.S.R. would continue to be an enemy of Western Europe and not ship its own low-cost natural gas to that market. This informative book was first published in 1991 and revised in 1996 when it came out in paperwork . . . I'd be curious to see a 2008 edition.

A Good Value (If you buy it used):
This book has two problems. One. It was originally written in 1989-1990. Sometimes the author mentions something like, "We might attack Iraq because of its aggression towards Kuwait." Then you realize that you are taking your strategy cues from something almost 20 years old. Two. The theory of this book could be summarized very quickly in a few pages, and the rest of the book is not very interesting. The idea here is that change happens, and though you might not be able to predict exactly what is going to happen, you can think about all the things that might happen, and develop contingencies and ideas for dealing with those possible future events. Meanwhile your competitors, who have not done such planning, are shocked and unable to react in any meaningful way, because they do not even have an outline of a contingency plan. Now you know what you need to know about it, and I just saved you the time of reading this book. You're welcome.